Let's run the numbers

Reading List It is a good thing to be married to a librarian. Our local system has a web-accessable catalog where I can put a book on hold. Depending on how many people are waiting for the book, in a few days to a few months, my wife comes home with the book I've requested. I was reading "A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market" by John Allen Paulos. It is the kind of book that makes mathematics of investing accessable to non-mathematical types (and some of us mathematical folks as well), even as he tells the story of his failed love affair with Worldcom stock. Of course, I set this aside as soon as I got in "Big Lies: The Right-Wing Propaganda Machine and How It Distorts the Truth" by Joe Conason. This book takes all of the distortions of the right-wing media, the Bush-Cheney administration, and the Republican "conventional wisdom", and proceeds to refute them, citing facts chapter and verse. I think this book is great. But I've g...

Is the Bush administration taking my advice? If so, STOP THAT!!! Yes, I said back in April that you should get the civil administration of Iraq back up and running, and do it by using former officials, even if they were Ba'ath party members. But this is not what I had in mind: U.S. Recruiting Hussein's Spies Occupation Forces Hope Covert Campaign Will Help Identify Resistance By Anthony Shadid and Daniel Williams Washington Post Foreign Service Sunday, August 24, 2003; Page A01 BAGHDAD, Aug. 23 -- U.S.-led occupation authorities have begun a covert campaign to recruit and train agents with the once-dreaded Iraqi intelligence service to help identify resistance to American forces here after months of increasingly sophisticated attacks and bombings, according to U.S. and Iraqi officials. (snip) Hussein's security forces were a suffocating presence in Iraq and still cast a long shadow. Of the four security branches, the Mukhabarat was the best-treate...

Lionfish found off N.C. Coast. Granted, 60 miles offshore, but still, what in the hell is going on here? They were found there last year, and they appear to be reproducing. Apparently they didn't die off over the winter. What do we do now? Try to eliminate them all? Poisonous tropical fish found again along N.C. coast ABOARD THE SEWARD JOHNSON - Scientists have come across a poisonous tropical fish near North Carolina's continental shelf for the second consecutive summer. They are worried because the fish are not supposed to be there, said Ann Marie Necaise, a researcher with the N.C. National Estuarine Research Reserve. On Tuesday, researchers came across 10 lionfish, a spiny fish native to the warm Pacific and Indian oceans, during a submersible dive in roughly 250-foot water about 60 miles off Wrightsville Beach. Although attractive, its feather-like spines pack a painful punch. The lionfish's venom can produce abdominal pains in people, though fata...

Fox News Suit Thrown Out As many folks know, Fox News sued Al Franken for using their trademarked "Fair & Balanced" line on his book, Lies and the Lying Liars who Tell Them: A Fair and Balanced Look at the Right . Judge threw it out after 30 minutes of arguments, saying "This is an easy case." Fox News was egged on to do this by their bloviating windbag of a host, Bill O'Reilly, who got publically spanked by Al Franken earlier this year at a book event. Here's Molly Ivins account of it: I got caught in a verbal slugfest between the two of them recently in Los Angeles. The high point was when O'Reilly cleverly riposted Franken's account of his lies by screaming: "Shut up! Shut up!" A particularly sound argument, I thought. Franken, in turn, said, "Bill, we're not on Fox News." And now we can all feel a little bit better.

Technological note Got a new wireless keyboard/mouse today, a Logitech Cordless Elite Duo. I like the feel of the keyboard OK, and I like being able to pull it into my lap when I've got my feet propped up on my desk and I'm typing. The optical mouse is very sensitive, and has a good feel to it. I'll report more as events warrant.

It's all just a little bit of history repeating I'm reminded of Marx here (Karl, not Groucho), who said "History always repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, and the second as farce." MONTGOMERY, Ala., Aug. 20 -- They still talk about Gov. George C. Wallace here, defiantly standing in that long-ago schoolhouse door. And from now on, they also will be talking about Chief Justice Roy S. Moore and his modern-day version of Alabama-style civil disobedience. Today, Moore, a Baptist, refused to comply with a federal court deadline to remove a 2-ton granite monument of the Ten Commandments that he installed in the rotunda of the state Supreme Court building. While the justice continued his legal fight from inside the courthouse, dozens of Moore's supporters gathered in prayer circles outside and made plans to kneel in front of the monument to block any attempt to forcibly remove it. Teams of round-the-clock monument patrols were put in place, and "min...

A correction From a loyal reader: Datanerd, it's not true that I cut myself only on knifes. I also use a table saw adjustable dado blade to accomplish the same thing. Get your facts straight. Father of Datanerd Noted. Of course, I didn't say that my father only cut himself on knives, just that he frequently cut himself on them when he was sharpening them. And I believe the emergency room doctor said he "macerated" the flesh, basically chewed it up, when he did his impromptu show with the table saw. Not cut, per say. So, I believe my comments were factually accurate and fully appropriate to the historical record.

Robert Samuelson leaves me banging my head Robert Samuelson is normally a careful analytical columnist. But today's column in the Washington Post is ridiculous. It's about deregulation of electric utilities, and he's basically for it despite the anticompetitive, manipulative actions of energy companies. Whatever the sins of Enron and others in California, politicians and regulators committed the greatest blunders. Here's a short list: (a) Approval was slow for new plants, creating an electricity shortage; (b) as wholesale electricity rates rose, state regulators insulated consumers from the increases (this worsened the shortage, because low rates stimulated demand); and (c) the state's major utilities, forced to buy electricity from independent power producers, couldn't sign long-term contracts and had to pay rising daily prices. Absent all the errors, the crisis wouldn't have occurred. Approval was no slower for California than it was for any ...

Texas Republicans say 'No map, no elections' From Friday's Austin American-Statesman : The state's Republican leadership is looking into the possibility of postponing the March congressional primaries if the boycotting Democratic senators continue to delay the GOP effort to draw new districts. (snip) David Beckwith, spokesman for Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, said the Senate leadership also has been considering the postponement option. Dewhurst "thinks the Legislature has a duty to redistrict, and if it can't be done in the appropriate time, in time for the scheduled primaries, it would be wise to postpone it until they can perform their duty," Beckwith said. Republicans stole the presidential election in Florida. They pushed through a recall of the governor in California. Now Texas Republicans, who take their marching orders from Karl Rove and Tom DeLay, are actually talking about delaying an election until the vote will go their way? D...

Alabama's Republican Governor Attempts to Reform Tax Code I cannot believe I'm supporting a Republican. But this guy is doing more than most Democrats when it comes to progressive taxation, and might actually be able to get away with it because he's a Republican. Governor Bob Riley is actually trying to get Alabamians in a statewide referendum to vote to amend the state constitution to make state taxes more progressive, fund education fully, and increase the number of state troopers. From the Washington Post : The born-again Baptist governor is telling voters in this Bible Belt state that their tax system, which imposes an effective rate of 3 percent on the wealthiest Alabamians and 12 percent on the poorest, is "immoral" and needs repair. "When I read the New Testament, there are three things we're asked to do: That's love God, love each other and take care of the least among us," Riley said in his office in the antebellum state Capitol....

Household Chores This afternoon I spent an hour or so sharpening all of our kitchen knives. This is a chore done once or twice a year, which is why it takes so long. When I was growing up, my father would sharpen the knives. Often he would cut himself while sharpening them. If he didn't, it was almost a certainty that my mother, forgetting that the knives had just been sharpened, would apply the same pressure that she did the night before to cut through something, and cut herself in the process. It seems like the knives demand an occasional blood offereing to keep cutting. I've already warned Mrs. Datanerd about this.

Josh Marshall is banging his head against the wall See Talking Points Memo , and ask yourself the same question: What are our priorities? This, quite literally, takes the cake. The Pentagon and the White House are pushing to cut the pay of American troops serving in Iraq. Back in April Congress raised the extra allowances soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines get for being in combat zones and for family separation. The former got bumped to $225 from $150 a month; the latter to $250 from $100. The administration says this increase will cost $300 million per year. And that's too much. They want to go back to the old rates. The administration says that amount can't be balanced with our other priorities. What are our priorities? Let's see, tax cuts for the rich, cuts in social services for the poor, irrepairable harm to our environmental regulation, corporate welfare for big business. Is that a good enough start on our list of priorities?

A poor choice for EPA Administrator Utah's governor, Mike Leavitt, is a bad choice for EPA Administrator. Pollution is a national or international problem, not a problem that states can fix on their own. That's my big problem with him, his proposing state solutions when the state is not the only one that suffers because of pollution. If you worship at the temple of market-based pollution control, this guy wouldn't be able to set up such a market because all of the externalities couldn't be factored in on a state by state basis. See the second article for proof of this. And what will happen with pollution when the state regulates it, and the polluter says its part of "interstate commerce", which states are forbidden to interfere with? Anyway, here's the bit from the Washington Post today: AURORA, Colo., Aug. 11 -- President Bush today named Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt (R) to head the Environmental Protection Agency, pledging that the longtime advoc...

Last One Tonight From Jay Leno, Monday, August 4, Monologue: "Oh, and economists had good news for the economy. President Bush went on a month-long vacation." Heh heh. I think everyone in America would like a month-long vacation, even if they did have to occasionally be interrupted by Colin Powell asking about North Korea. Oh, wait, he would be asking Dick Cheney anyway! See you in September, W.

Housing booms and bubbles The New York Times yesterday had an article on the disparity of the housing markets between the Northeast and the Midwest (see Around U.S., a House Is a Home but Not a Bonanza ). I have a little townhouse in Alexandria, VA, 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, 2 half baths. My neighbors just sold theirs for $190,000. Back in Chattanooga, TN, my aunt has a big fine house, very nice neighborhood, 5 bedrooms, 3 baths, twice the square feet I have, that just sold for about $189,500. Her's probably went up in value around the rate of inflation. Mine, well, let's just say I've done real well in the past three years I've owned it. Over the long term, house values tend to increase at roughly the same rate as incomes in any region, economists say. Because prices have outgained incomes on the coasts the last two decades, many analysts expect the housing gap to narrow eventually - but they were saying the same a decade ago. "It takes generations ...

Shorter Molly Ivins Democrats do not oppose Bill Pryor because he's Catholic; we oppose him because he's a dipstick. Ashcroft watching judges for signs they aren't following mandantory sentencing guidelines is worrisome. And the Bush administration has sold out to corporate interests. Seriously, go read her column now . It's good stuff, especially the parts about Alabama Attorney General Bill Pryor, who has tried his best to keep vibrators out of the hands (and, one would assume, other parts) of Alabama's good people.

Republicans send relief to Democrats Remember the Democratic Senators from Texas who had to leave the state? Remember they had to leave because the Republican Senators decided to change the rules of the Senate. The Republicans wanted to change the rule that required a 2/3 majority to bring up new business, such as redistricting. This was the rule that the Republican Senators used to throw redistricting into the courts in 2001. Now that they have the majority, they wanted to change the rules. Well, the Republicans sent a care package to Albuquerque: Texas GOP Chairwoman Susan Weddington says the diapers represent what the Republicans say is the Democrats' childish behavior. The Republicans go on to say the baby rattles give them something to hold as they shake their fists, the leashes keep them close to the national Democratic Party leaders who ordered the walk-out, and the pacifiers should help curb their whining. "We hope that these behavior-appropriate items ma...

On Hard Landings Billmon has a new post up titled Hard Landing . I've quoted the first section below. But, diving a little beneath the statistical surface, I can see that the trends I've been writing about recently -- most particularly, the deflationary effects of below-trend GDP growth, and the explosion in the U.S. trade deficit -- remain in place. Until those two trends turn around, or at least stabilize, it's difficult to see how a "normal" economic recovery can be sustained. That's not to say an economic bounce can't happen. Given the amount of stimulus -- fiscal and monetary -- that's been rammed down the economy's throat right recently, it bloody well should bounce. It should roar like a tiger, as a matter of fact. And yet, so far, the patient is showing only mild signs of improvement. The worst part is, this is the most optimistic part of his posting. Then he gets into our current account trade deficit, and the overvalued d...

Administration Criticism Part Three Remember me saying below how the Three Stooges (Secretaries of Labor, Commercs, and Treasury) were making a road trip through the heartland to inspire us, and how the protesters were kept a safe distance away? Well, through the good offices of a fast-food drive through, one unemployed protester got to John Snow, Secretary of the Treasury. Read his story at jobforjohn.com . And he even comes up with the slogan for the Bush Administrations Economic Policy. "Jobs and Growth: Just Wait."

Economic Releases Well, this month's Employment Situation report was bad again. The unemployment rate dropped, but only because people dropped out of the workforce (they quit looking for work). The unemployment rate rose last month because of people entering the workforce (technically, not working and looking for work). Also, the payroll survey reported a continuing loss of jobs in the economy. Consumer spending is the reason the GDP hasn't dropped much. I don't get it. Are there that many people who aren't worried about their jobs, that they keep spending even though the next job lost might be theirs? I guess so. But it sure seems odd. Over at BEA, they released the quarterly GDP estimates . GDP grew in the second quarter at a 2.4 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate. What this means, is that if the same growth continued over a year, the GDP would have grown at 2.4 percent. The bulk of this came from increased defense spending; nondefense fe...