Let's run the numbers

On Hiatus For the week of Christmas. Heading home to spend time with family. See you all in a week.

Robert Novak is amazed by lack of accountability Even Robert Novak is amazed by the lack of accountability in the Bush administration, and said so today in a Washingtonpost.com chat . Washington, D.C.: What can you tell us about the role of the 3 wise men (Wolfowitz, Dov and Feith)in DOD in the fiasco? Robert Novak: They put together the CPA, and they ought to take responsibility for the chaos. Unfortunately, this administration doesn't work this way. In nearly half a century of reporting, I never have seen an administration [less] willing to allocate responsibility for any fiasco that it perpetrates. Bob, little hint. If you want to foster accountability in this administration, spill the beans on whoever outed Valerie Plame. Otherwise, don't bother saying things like that. It makes you look bad.

Why do I read the MS Global Economic Forum too late? After I wrote the previous piece, I stopped to see if the Morgan Stanley Global Economic Forum had anything to say about the USD/EUR exchange rate. Why didn't I read this before? Rick Bremer sees things mostly positive, but not completely. Note that Rick Bremer tends to be optimistic, although he's been at least partially right of late. The Dollar and the Economy Notwithstanding that the dollar's 20% traded-weighted decline over the past 28 months has been orderly, that US asset markets have outperformed most other big markets in local currency terms this year, and that the dollar's benefits for the US economy make dollar-denominated assets more attractive, worries persist that the dollar's decline will turn vicious and raise interest rates as investors leave our markets. It's not hard to see why many analysts are concerned: Our huge budget deficits and unprecedented dependence on external so

The Dollar continues to drop This is really worrying me. As the dollar sinks further and further, there is a risk that foreign investors will not only reduce investment in US debt, but will start selling what they do have, causing a full-blown currency dump. Remember Asian markets in 1999? Even if that doesn't happen, a continued slow and steady decline of the dollar will mean that interest rates will have to go up to continue to attract enough cash for our demand for a current account deficit. Low interest rates are one of the only reasons that we have a marginally growing economy, and higher rates would strangle the recovery in its cradle. How much has the dollar lost? Roughly 6 percent since I was in Ireland in mid-October. 17 percent over the year. Many economists thought the dollar needed to drop 15-20 percent to get it back to fair value. But I'm afraid we may overshoot and the decline may become disorderly. Stocks End Near Flat After Dollar Sinks

NPR versus the Washington Post Am I better informed when I drive to work, and listen to NPR "Morning Edition" and "All Things Considered"? Or when I read the Washington Post on the Metro? Both have their benefits. In support of the paper, I can get much more in-depth through 24 paragraphs of a story, whereas on the radio it would be more limited, more like three or four paragraphs. And I definately get more "local" news, local being Alexandria, VA, and Fairfax County, VA, not just general happenings of Washington, DC, which gets more play in the national media, but has less relevence for me. Plus, the comics, Get Fuzzy and others, and the crossword puzzle on the way home. It's a race to see if I can finish the puzzle before the train reaches my station. On the other hand, NPR covers a lot more news items, so I have information about a lot of different issues and news of the day, but not as deep a knowledge. This can give you a broade

NPR on an MP3 player I could sign up with Audible.com, and pay $70 a year for Morning Edition and $70 for All Things Considered, and be able to download the programs into a portable MP3 player. Hmmm...maybe that would be a valuable promo for my public radio station to give away for a donation. Something to think about, WETA 90.9 and WAMU 88.5. If people start paying for NPR programs on Audible, then they're less likely to donate to their local station, which will start the decline of local programming on public radio. As people get used to paying for content on the net, this problem will only get bigger. So, it might be good to nip it in the bud, and let NPR sell MP3s of the programs through affiliate stations webpages, so the affiliate and NPR get a cut of the action, rather than NPR cutting the affiliate out of the action.

On obligations of citizenship Other than jury duty and taxes, is there another obligation of citizenship that requires a person give up personal time for society? I don't think so. We have laws that tell us what we cannot do. Some of these laws do require positive action from the citizen, such as building permits or driver's licenses. But these do not appear to be a requirement of citizenship. If you don't want to get a driver's license, don't. And if you've never built or added on to a house, or other structure, you've never had to get a building permit. I've never required one. Granted, these days to receive maximum benefit from citizenship, you do have to get some form of government ID. But it's not a requirement. Maybe signing up for Social Security is a requirement, at least to work, and to conduct commerce. All of your financial transactions require Social Security numbers these days. These are the things I was thinking a

Did we capture the real Saddam Hussein? I'm inclined to think so. Why? He had US$750,000 in hundred dollar bills with him.

When will the grown ups take over? Just heard this on Marketplace on public radio. Yesterday, the Pentagon announced that only countries who supported us during the war would be allowed to have contracts on rebuilding Iraq. Thus, no French companies, no German companies, no Canadian companies, and no Russian companies will be allowed to get contracts on the rebuilding. At the same time of this announcement, President Bush was calling Russian leaders, asking them to forgive Iraqi national debt. The Russians turned him down flat. Did the administration really expect anything otherwise? What the hell were they thinking? Were they thinking? Great god, I never thought I'd be glad to see James Baker working for this administration, but he may be the only grown up available.

Daniel Davies is brilliant Two pieces he's posted lately bear reading. One on his own blog, and one on Crooked Timber. The first one he deals with American leadership, and our questioning of it. D-squared Digest -- A fat young man without a good word for anyone : ...I never qutie understand why the pro-war crowd, left and right, seem to think that injecting the phrase 'Bush is a moron' into the debate is in some way unsportsmanlike, unmannerly or evidence that one's opposition is partisan or not serious. It's an entirely germane point in considering the costs and benefits of a war whether or not it's being run by a moron, and it is by no means established that the option of a war not run by a moron was completely out of the question. The benefits of waiting could have been considerable; we might have had a significantly better-planned war and post-war. And I'd argue that the costs were not so great; although Saddam was indeed a dictator or the varie

Perverse Consequences Dept. This is a continuation of the last post. Am I the only one who sees in Al Gore's endorsement of Howard Dean a hidden blessing for Joe Lieberman and the rest of the Democratic field? This way, Rove & Co. have a front-runner to attack, attack, attack, while the remaining Democratic field is shielded. Then, one of the shielded ones can pop out if the attacks, investigations, and innuendo get to be too much for Dean. The loss of credibility would put a serious dent in Al Gore's future political prospects, however. And I don't think Al is that selfless.

Boy, is Lieberman pissed! The Gore endorsement of Howard Dean is a major boost for Dean, and a nail in the coffins of the other candidates. Sharpton and Kerry have had some harsh words, but Lieberman is the most annoyed. Lieberman is saying that he is the logical standardbearer of the continuation of the Clinton years of moderate Democrats. The only problem with this is that Dean is not that liberal. More liberal than Lieberman, but I don't think he's more liberal than Clinton was. The only point where he breaks with moderate Democrat orthodoxy is on the war in Iraq, which a lot of us now say was a fuckup (see Senator Kerry's comments in Rolling Stone). Oh, and Dean's stance on guns. He's against gun control. So, he's more liberal on one thing, more conservative on another. He believes in fiscal restraint, balanced budgets, and individual liberties. One commentator even went so far as to call him a Rockefeller Republican. I think that's a

Now, if we cut their health insurance, we make more money quicker How would you feel if your employer took out a life insurance policy on you as a tax dodge? As you probably know, proceeds from life insurance policies are tax free. So this is just a tax dodge. Unless they cut the retired teachers health benefits and start collecting quicker. HoustonChronicle.com - Top Democrat urges Perry to abandon 'death business' Copyright 2003 Houston Chronicle Austin Bureau AUSTIN -- The chairman of the Texas Democratic Party on Friday called on Gov. Rick Perry to terminate discussions to have the state purchase life insurance policies on thousands of retired teachers in order to earn the death benefits. 'It is outrageous that Rick Perry would try to put the state of Texas into the death business,' said Charles Soechting. 'You don't fund state government by taking out life insurance policies on retired teachers and cashing in upon their death.' P

While you're there... And while you're reading the previous post on Orcinus, read this one too. Good god, this is chilling. But it is also good analysis. Reminds me of reading Krugman quoting Kissenger about revolutionaries, but more intense. Because this time it is personal. Go, read. Orcinus-The Political and the Personal : When the Supreme Court handed down its ruling in Bush v. Gore, (which I will discuss in more detail sometime this week), it became clear to me that not only had the conservative movement grown into a dogmatic ideology, it had metastacized into a power-hungry, devouring claque of ideologues for whom winning was all that mattered. I also knew, of course, that not everyone who participated in the movement was like this -- but they were all too willing to let those who were run a steamroller over every basic principle of democratic rule -- especially its core of equity and fair play -- in the name of obtaining the White House.

I should link to David Neiwert more often Unfortunately, I didn't have him blogrolled until now. And he's often horribly depressing. And too often correct. Orcinus-Why domestic terrorism matters : Apropos of last night's post abouth the white supremacists who had put together a lethal poison-gas bomb that they planned to detonate somewhere in the United States: At least one weapon of mass destruction -- a sodium cyanide bomb capable of delivering a deadly gas cloud -- has been seized in the Tyler area. This means, of course, that we have now found more weapons of mass destruction in Texas, in the hands of domestic terrorists, than we have in Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Notably, this is the second such case already this year, and both have been cracked due to sheer blind luck. Another recent domestic-terrorism attack was prevented because relatives and friends grew concerned. One has to wonder how long we're going to stay lucky.

Truth? What is truth? They've apparently never practiced it. Wasn't this administration supposed to bring honor back to the White House? And they impeach a president over one lie about a little (censored)? Note also that this article does not actually detail the farrago of bullshit that surrounded the "Mission Accomplished" banner. First, it was all the ship, honoring the president, and the White House had nothing to do with it. Then, it was just the ship, saying that their mission was accomplished. Finally, the admission that the White House put it up, but it didn't mean that the Mission was actually Accomplished, just that Major Fighting had ended, or had been accomplished for the crew of the carrier, or some other nonsense. Yahoo! News - White House Changes Story on Bush Plane Incident : Wed Dec 3, 4:44 PM ET By Randall Mikkelsen WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In another White House correction, the Bush administration on Wednesday changed its sto

Yes, my computer is back up and running After a low-level format to the hard drive. Which means it wasn't the drive hardware, but the ease of damage of the Microsoft operating system. Wasn't XP supposed to be much more robust?

Unemployment and Disability This is interesting. This makes this current recession's unemployment statistics not directly comparable to previous recessions. So, a 6 percent unemployment rate is more like 8 percent plus unemployment. And to get us out of this hole, we'll need much more economic growth than we're getting. Also, if we follow this to its logical conclusion, we could say that a lot of jobs that were displaced by NAFTA in the early 1990's resulted in uncounted unemployment because the unemployed went on disability. I would love to see some disability statistics that break down by region or state. I'll go looking for them tomorrow. The Unemployment Myth (New York Times, November 30, 2003) : The government's announcement on Tuesday that the economy grew even faster than expected makes the current 'jobless recovery' even more puzzling. To give some perspective, unemployment normally falls significantly in such economic boom times.