Tragedy in Spain


Summary: This tragedy occurred 2 1/2 years to the day after 9/11. 10 explosions occurred on commuter trains between 7:30 and 8:00 AM local time today, March 11. 3 more bombs were found by police and defused. 192 people killed, thousands injured. Conventional wisdom suggests that ETA, the Basque separatist group was behind this. They had tried to blow up trains back on Christmas Eve 2003, which was found out, and had recently tried to send vans with explosives into Madrid in February, which was also prevented. The type of explosive used in today's attacks was also used in the February attempt.

There are also potential Al-Qaeda ties, although they are tenuous. First, there was a van found with detonators and an Arabic language tape. This was reported in other sources as having Quaran verses in it. The BBC is now reporting that this is a tape with verses related to education. Also, a group called the Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades has claimed responsibility in the name of Al-Qaeda. This is possible, because they have also claimed responsibility for other recent bombings, but they also claimed responsibility for the blackout on the Northeast last year, which was demonstrably not a terrorist attack. So, their credibility is suspect. Also, according to BBC experts, Al-Qaeda usually doesn't claim responsibility so quickly.

In the same vein, ETA typically calls in a bomb threat before it attacks. There was no bomb threat before the attack. Additionally, the spokesperson for the political wing, Batasuna (SAT question: ETA is to Batasuna as the IRA is to Sinn Fein) said that this was the act of "Arab resistance". Finally, the crackdowns had earlier seemed to be working, with very few ETA attacks over the past year or so. Only 3 people were killed last year in ETA attacks.


Sources:
BBC NEWS | Europe | Spain probes bomb carnage claims
BBC NEWS | World | Europe | Who are Eta?
Yahoo! News - Terror Blasts Kill at Least 192 in Spain
CNN.com - Police search for Madrid terror bombers - Mar 11, 2004

Analysis: It does seem like ETA has been very active recently. There is a national election scheduled for Sunday, and ETA may want everyone to know they're still around. Also, the Al-Qaeda connection looks to be somewhat overblown. The big thing is that ETA has never managed such a large strike, setting off bombs by remote control with such precision. This suggests technical assistance from some source. At this point, I would suggest that there may be a more violent wing of the ETA which has received technical assistance from a current or former Al-Qaeda source, since many of their assets have been scattered to the four winds with the destruction of their camps in Afghanistan.

This does not bode well for the United States. We don't know if the Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigade is for real, or is a nutcase with a fax machine, as one source thought. However, they claimed that "The expected strike against America, is now at its final stage -- 90 percent ready." I have a feeling we'll be going to Orange alert soon, or at least Yellow-plus-plus.

Finally, my condolences to everyone who lost loved ones in the attack. Your country grieved with us on September 11, 2001. We grieve with you now.

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