Groundhog Day?


Kash of the Angry Bear cites this article on his blog, but I think he missed the most important part. The most accurate forcaster lately is calling for a net increase of 40,000 jobs. Consensus is 123,000 increase. We'll see who's more right at 8:30 AM tomorrow, but I'm leaning toward 40,000. I hope I'm proven wrong.

The economist who's been most right in recent months is Richard Yamarone at Argus Research, who's taken a somewhat unique approach to forecasting, listening to hundreds of corporate conference calls and CEO speeches, none of which gave him warm, fuzzy feelings about the immediate future of the labor market.

There weren't many conference calls in March, and Yamarone says he's hearing corporate decision-makers talking about creating jobs -- but not right away.

"All of these corporate chieftains are saying new hiring is in the cards, around the corner, down the road -- but that doesn't mean March," Yamarone said Thursday.

Yamarone expects just 40,000 new jobs in March, and some other forecasters have moved their numbers down into his neighborhood, including the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, MCM MoneyWatch, International Insider and Banc One Investment Advisors.

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