Let's run the numbers

Ulcermaker A few hours ago, I thought Kerry won. Anyway, I think that he will still win, but my tummy is upset now. Anyway, let's hope that it comes together for Kerry.

Best Bars in Marathon It was an interesting trip to the Keys. I’d never been in October. Apparently either the hurricanes scared all of the locals out, or they usually all go on vacation then. It was like Paris in August. Some restaurants, attractions and shops were closed. But what was left was really nice, and fortunately the hurricanes hadn't hit there. As many of my regular readers know, I like to take a drink every now and then. On vacation in the Florida Keys, I managed to convince Mrs. Datanerd that a predinner drink was a requirement. So, we stopped at four tiki bars before dinner in the time we were there. Two of them stood out. Burdine’s was our favorite. On the second floor of a quickie-mart for boats and boaters, this bar stands out for its views. It’s right on the boat channel into Boot Key harbor, across from mangrove where multitudes of birds roost. Looking out on the channel, you can watch the sun set. Beers were cold, served with coozies t...

Debates As you know, I was away during the second debate. However, I did watch it down in the Keys. Pretty much a tie, with a slight edge to Kerry. Tonight, I give it to Kerry. He had his facts together better than Bush, and provides a more optimistic vision for the American people. Bush says a lot of things about the failed policies of the past, but Bush's policies are the ones that have failed us. It's time to try something different. This time, I didn't make notes or anything, so I can't cite the times that Kerry did better. But I think he really did. Anyway, I'm not going to blog too much about politics for the next few days. Instead, I'll be treating you to reviews of restaurants, bars, and tours and activities in Marathon, Florida, the heart of the Middle Keys. Me and Mrs. Datanerd had a wonderful trip down, and only regret that it was so short.

Post-VP Debate Edwards did well. Cheney did fairly well. I don't think we'll see any substantial changes in the campaigns because of this debate. And, yes, I'm sober this time. Good night, I'm signing off to get back to packing for Florida.

Vice-Presidential Debate I'll be watching the debate, and will try to post some notes afterwards. I'll not be drinking (much) and won't be running back and forth from my easy chair to the computer. That was just too much work. This is the bout of "Mr. Sunshine" (Edwards) versus "The Human Grumble" (Cheney). The format will be Cheney's best friend. He looks good behind a desk, a virtue that Halliburton put to good use. The facts will be Edwards best friend. Let's hope he can hammer them home and keep Cheney on edge. Let's face it, while the debate will in one sense ride on the facts, it'll also ride on how the candidates appear. And Cheney has learned from Bush's woeful performance, so I doubt he'll be scowling as much as usual. Oh, and if I do have a drink during the debate, it'll be Magner's Cider (Sold in Ireland as Bulmer's). Mrs. Datanerd loves the stuff, and we were thrilled when they started i...

Post-debate comments As I noted, I was watching the PBS coverage, apparently the only one that didn't go to a split-screen format so you could see the opponents reactions. People who watched the split-screen thought Kerry won by much greater margins than those who only saw the one speaker. Yes, I know that seeing the President's facial expressions and his slumping on the lectern is style over substance, but considering the way Al Gore got savaged for much less, all I can say is "Payback's a bitch". And speaking of payback, James Wolcott has some comments on the debate, and President Twitchy. James Wolcott : In birding, those fanatical about building up the life lists of species are known as 'twitchers.' But there was no bigger twitcher last night than the bird-hating Bush, who once ignorantly shot a killdeer during a photo op thinking it was a dove, according to Karen Hughes' merde-eating memoir. Bush's face suffered a silent outbreak of To...

Mis-statements of Dubya Matt Yglesias caught the A.Q. Khan comment, and many more. Go read his list. I'm tired, slightly drunk, and not in the mood to continue fact-checking our incomparably incopetent president. GEORGE W. BUSH, HOW DO YOU MISLEAD ME?

Final Opinion If you liked Kerry better, you'll still like Kerry. If you liked Bush, you'll still like Bush. Kerry was better, but not so much that everyone will lose faith in Bush. Basically because Bush is full of shit, but hey, that's the way politics works in this day and age. Kerry did much better than I though he would. He was articulate, expressed his views, and drew a strong distinction between himself and Bush. I'll be away for the next debate. I'll be on a fishing boat and Mrs. Datanerd will be under a palm tree with a glass of sangria. We're heading for the Florida Keys. Assuming Spirit Airlines takes care of us, we'll be back for the next one.

Korea How many ways can Bush mispronounce Kim Jong-Il. Do it yourself, we'll wait. Okay, Bush called it Kim Jim Il and Kim Shan Il. I've spend 4 months of my life barnstorming around South Korea, I don't want to see it blown to hell. Read my blog from back in April and May of 2003. He just doesn't get the situation there. Read "The Two Koreas" for more info.

Argh Bush just called the threat posed by Saddam Hussein a "Difference of opinion". I've switched from red wine (Goats do Roam, South Africa) to stout (Murphy's, Cork, Ireland). This is a tough debate so far, with respect to saying Kerry's the winner, Bush is the loser. But Bush keeps dodging questions, like he is right now about the International Criminal Court. Nobody asked about it, but he's trying to slime Kerry about being popular in international circles. Also, Mrs. Datanerd noticed that Bush seems to be calling for rebuttals more often than Kerry is. Whiner :).

Bush and Kerry So far, Kerry is trouncing Bush. Bush looks scared, damaged, keeps falling back on pat answers, making non sequiturs from one issue to another. Kerry: "Bush said he'd plan carefully. He didn't. He said we'd only go to war as a last resort, we didn't...We need to be smarter the way we fight the war on terror."

Bush stumbling With this last exchange, he looks like a C student arguing with the professor. The trouble is, he said they're doing everything they can against terror. But the professor knows more things they should be doing. And he tried to fit in a comment about Kerry's tax policy, and Kerry fired right back that we didn't need the last tax cut, we needed security more.

Mrs D has a point Mrs. Datanerd caught a Kerry comment: "We went in to Iraq for weapons of mass destructions, not to eliminate Saddam Hussein." Also, we're glad they're cutting to Bush while Kerry is speaking, because we see how he looks uninterested in Kerry's comments, contemptable of Kerry.

Wrong I call bullshit on Bush in this rebuttal. The A.Q. Khan network is the Pakistani nuclear scientist who developed their nuke, and who was selling his expertise to Iran and North Korea, among others. He was forgiven by Pervez Musharraf, the president of Pakistan. Not brought to trial, not brought to justice. Now, back to turn the beef again. BRB.

Coverage By the way, I'll be watching the PBS coverage. Talk to you soon.

Debate #1 I'll be watching the debate tonight, and I may try to blog real-time during the debate. Let me also plagarize from another blogger(which one I've forgotten). I'll be playing a game. It's called drinking. Every time Dubya opens his mouth, I'll take a drink. Hey, it's probably what he really wants anyway, and with any luck tomorrow I won't remember how stupid his comments were, and won't be torn up about how the media declares him the winner. This is going to be hard for Kerry to win. I think he's up for the challenge. I hope our media is up for the challenge of ignoring fashion and style, and focusing on the issues. I've been noticing signs of that here and there, and I hope they continue. Anyway, on to me making dinner before the debates, and getting set up for the evening.

Florida Elections What amazes me is how the Republican Party refuses to recognize that there was even a problem, and that problems still remain. Instead, slime the messenger, in this case, President Carter. Yahoo! News - Jeb Bush Dismisses Carter on Fla. Vote TALLAHASSEE, Fla. - Gov. Jeb Bush said Tuesday that "conspiracy theories" about the state's voting machines are "nonsense," and he criticized former President Jimmy Carter for questioning whether Florida can hold a fair election. Carter said in an opinion piece in Monday's Washington Post that despite changes designed to eliminate voting problems in Florida, conditions for a fair election still do not exist. Carter wrote that a repetition of the problems of 2000 — when some Floridians said they didn't have confidence their votes were counted — appeared likely. "There is this constant haranguing of nonsense, including President Carter — which is a surprise to me because I'v...

Cat on a hot tin airliner I just knew this would turn out badly. For those of you who don't follow 1970's singer-songwriters, Cat Stevens, now known as Yusuf Islam, was flying to the Washington, DC from London this past week, when the plane he was on was diverted to Bangor, Maine, so that he could be removed from the aircraft. He was removed and driven to Boston, then to Washington, where he was put on the next flight out. I've kept quiet about this one, because he has said some boneheaded things in the past about the fatwa on Salman Rushdie. I've had a feeling, though, that this was a colossal cockup on the part of the Homeland Security people and it would come back to bite us in the behind. Guess what? It's a spelling error. Yahoo! News - Cat Stevens deportation linked to spelling error : NEW YORK (AFP) - An incident this week in which former pop star Cat Stevens was deported from the United States to London as a 'no-fly' terrorist risk was ...

Additions to the blogroll Brad Delong, in addition to being a great and prolific economist, can be screamingly funny at his team blog, Shrillblog. I have added them to the blogroll on the left. Here is a snippet from the explanation for the Ancient and Hermetic Order of the Shrill. BTW, Paul Krugman is the Eldest of the Shrill. Go forth, and read all of this. Shrillblog: In Which We Answer Your Questions : We are broadcasting from our studio high in the tall steel-and-glass building that is the Hermetic Arts Tower here at Miskatonic University in picturesque Arkham, Massachusetts. Down the hall we have one laboratory where graduate students are trying to make hands of glory out of pigeons feet. If we look down into the courtyard we can see the unholy creations that have escaped from the Mechatronic Lab shamble off into the hills. And we? We are here in the small suite of offices that make up the world headquarters of the Ancient and Hermetic Order of the Shrill, here to an...

Marion Barry?!?!?!? At 9:34 PM News Channel 8 was reporting that former Mayor-For-Life, Marion Barry, was winning in the D.C. Ward 8 Democratic Primary with 50% of the vote. The incumbant, Sandy Allen, his former campaign manager for mayor, was trailing with 23% of the vote. The winner of the Democratic Primary is a shoo-in for the general election in the heavily Democratic (85% or so) District of Columbia. So we may have Marion to kick around some more.

This was powerful television Mrs. Datanerd and I watched NOW with Bill Moyers last night. "9/11: For The Record". It basically takes the 9/11 commission's report and analyzes it to look for who should be held accountable for this devastating failure of the government to protect its citizens. The report itself says that the system failed; the program looks at the report, at the testimony before the commission and finds that the Bush administration failed in key points to take the Al-Qaeda threat seriously. They were told many times, by Richard Clarke, Thomas Pickard, and others, and didn't want to pay attention to it. I wish every Republican could see this. Granted, most would say it's all partisan and not let it interfere with their world view that George W. Bush is making us safer, but a few would see the truth, that this administration was only paying attention to "threats" that their world view believed in. Like Iraq. It's very scar...

Where I've been, and where I am now Sorry again about being away. I got hung up on a post I was writing about the lack of quality jobs in the economy, and I didn't want to post anything else until I finished it. I'm a bit of a perfectionist. Anyway, so I'm on a short trip home to Tennessee, and I'm relaxed enough not to worry about that and get something up about the Emp Sit report. Oh, and I've been doing a lot of thinking about the Bush Dynasty and thinking about posting on that. More to come later.

What's wrong with this month's Employment Situation? Basically this month's Employment Situation report looks decent. 140,000 new jobs, unemployment rate down. What's wrong with that? Here's the key. To stay at the same unemployment rate, with the same labor force participation rate, you have to create about 120,000 new jobs every month. We created about that with the 140,000. So, for the unemployment rate to drop, the labor force participation rate had to decline, because of people leaving the labor force due to other factors, like becoming discouraged. Here's the quote. After rising in July, the labor force participation rate edged down to its June level of 66.0 percent. (See table A-1.) In the aggregate, we have more jobs than we did last month. But at the individual level, it's still just as hard as it was before.

This is absolutely stunning I was surprised when I heard this replayed on CNN yesterday. Who let Bush say something without it being vetted by Karl Rove? Didn't they think of how this could sound in an ad? This may be the undoing of the Bush campaign. Remarks by the President on Intelligence Reform : Knowing what I know today, we still would have gone on into Iraq. We still would have gone to make our country more secure. He had the capability of making weapons. He had terrorist ties. The decision I made was the right decision. The world is better off without Saddam Hussein in power. And I find it interesting, in the political process, that some say, well, I voted for the intelligence, and now they won't say whether or not it was the right decision to take Saddam Hussein out. It's the right decision, and the world is better off for it. Knowing what we know today, that Iraq had no weapons. Knowing what we know today, that Saddam Hussein was no threat to the ...

New post-convention poll Results look good to me. Now, we have to keep them coming. Further down in the article, there is discussion of how Kerry is gaining ground as a person who understands the needs of people, and a person of character. Key problem is going to be keeping these issues in front of voters, when the Kerry campaign will have a finite amount of cash to campaign on. Bush won't have a finite amount until the Republican convention at the end of August. Other people are going to have to step up and start hammering the Bush administration. Kerry Leads Bush in Post-Convention Poll (washingtonpost.com) : The new poll shows Kerry now claims the support of 50 percent of all registered voters, compared with 44 percent for Bush, with independent candidate Ralph Nader at 2 percent. On the eve of the convention, Bush led Kerry 48 percent to 46 percent. Among those most likely to vote, the race is tighter: Kerry holds a 2-point advantage over Bush in the current po...

Busy Busy I've been working on a post on lower-quality jobs and the possibility of a declining standard of living in the U.S. It's pretty scary, and so I'm procrastinating on it a bit. Anyway, on to another pet topic of mine, the housing bubble. Over at Crooked Timber , there were a few discussions of the "Efficient Market Hypothesis" which says roughly that at any time a free market will determine the best price for some item utilizing all information. Brad Delong already has links to all three of them. Those of us who feel that information isn't always available due to asymetrical control of information flow know better. Bubbles form due to asymetric information and market psychology. Anyway, here are two articles on the housing bubble from the New York Times. I think there is definately a bubble in the DC area. When my dinky little townhouse has more than doubled in value in 4 years, there's something very odd in the market. The New...

Farenheit 9/11 Just got home from seeing Farenheit 9/11. Nothing really new to report. Michael Moore tries to educate and entertain. Sometimes he uses unflattering shots to amuse the audience, like when he shows Paul Wolfowitz sticking his entire comb in his mouth to wet it to slick back his hair. Moore was pretty restrained though. Brad DeLong wrote about it a few weeks ago. Fahrenheit 911: Archive Entry From Brad DeLong's Webjournal : "Moore was also in many places in the movie much softer on Bush and Cheney than I would have been in his shoes. When Cheney talks about how proud he is of Halliburton, I would have cut to somebody describing the Halliburton accounting fraud--the failure to disclose material changes in accounting practices that moved a big chunk of profits forward in time to the current year--that Cheney presided over, and linked that to Bush's Harken Energy trading and to Halliburton's billing practices in Iraq. I would have had a section on Che...

Bush as 'peace' president A piece of what? Well, what he says is how he'd like to make us all more prosperous through ownership. Trouble is, he and his cronys already own everything. And without an inheritance tax, they'll get to keep it all too. So, don't believe him when he talks about everyone owning. You won't own enough to get the benefit. If you want to see what the future holds under another Bush regime, you have to go back to the past. See Billmon's Building a Bridge to the 19th Century for more on the return to the Gilded Age. As for being the Peace President, what a load of bullshit. First of all, he crowned himself the "War President". Perhaps he borrowed the crown from Sung Myung Moon . He must have figured out that with a majority of the country thinking the War in Iraq was a bad idea now, so he's the Peace President and anyone who says otherwise is being a "nottering nabob of negativity". Trouble is, o...

Guess who's blocking middle class tax relief Rove and Bush raise taxes on the middle class! At least that's how they would phrase it if some Democrats scuttled a 2-year deal in favor of a 5-year extension. Watch them and see if that is the rhetoric they trot out closer to election time. Anyone who doesn't agree with their plan is in favor of raising taxes. Just like that librul John Kerry, who voted to withhold money from our troops (unless we raised taxes to pay for it!) John Kerry voted in favor of funding the troops, he just wanted to make sure we actually had the money to do it rather than borrowing more. Bush Quashes GOP Deal on Tax Cuts' Life (washingtonpost.com) : President Bush yesterday scuttled a Republican agreement to extend three expiring middle-class tax cuts for two years, deciding instead to push for a more costly five-year extension when Congress returns in September. On Tuesday night, congressional GOP leaders agreed to a modest, two-year...

Fun Stuff First, for those who wonder what would make a good wine to serve with pulled pork barbeque, I nominate a South African wine called Fairview Goats Do Roam . Blended in the style of a French Cote du Rhone, it is spicy and fruity, and goes for $6-7 a bottle here in Virginia. Second item. Mrs. Datanerd lived in Rogersville, TN, when we started dating. She is not surprised. Yahoo! News - Four Inmates Flee Jail, Return With Beer ROGERSVILLE, Tennessee - With their cell doors accidentally left unlocked, four county jail inmates escaped only to return the same night — with beer. The Hawkins County Jail inmates, who bought four cases of beer before returning to the jail, were charged Monday with escape and introduction of intoxicants into a penal institution, the Kingsport Times-News newspaper reported Tuesday. "I guess they thought if they came back they wouldn't be charged with escape, but they were wrong," Sheriff Warren Rimer said. Ridgy Dea...

More on Nader Billmon asks the fundamental question—why has Nader stabbed the left in the back? And I think he's answered it too. Billmon: Unsafe at Any Speed [U]p until the past few weeks, I've never questioned Nader's motives or his sincerity. As destructive as I think his actions have been, and as much as I detest his stubborness and his increasingly bizarre egoism, I've taken it for granted that Ralph's objectives were exactly what he said they were: to give the voters a progressive alternative to the Republicrat political duopoly. I may have thought he was wrong - disastrously wrong - but I always assumed Nader was basically an honest person, and a man of the left. And as high as I know the stakes are in this election, it still made me uncomfortable to see the Dems using hardball tactics to try to keep him off the ballot in as many of the key states as they could. In my book, the Democratic Party was (and still is) just an instrument, a tool - a wea...

Nader and the Republicans Eric Alterman and Salon Magazine are both doing a good job of covering the ego trip that is the Nader campaign. I'll stay away from that, and address another salient point. Is it right for the Republicans to be trying to get him on the ballot? I have a friend who is a small-c conservative, and he says no. I did my usual thought experiment, and thought about how I would feel if it was Perot, and prominent Democratic activists were trying to get him on the ballot to split the Republican vote. The thing is, some Democrats did go over to support Perot, though more Republicans did. I have no question that they shared Perot's neo-populist views. They also voted for him in the general election. Let's contrast this with Nader's Republican backers. They don't share his views on anything, from gay marriage to controlling corporate interests in government to the War in Iraq. They also will not be voting for him. They only want him to...

Speaking of elections Most of you all who follow other blogs probably already heard about this. I think this is a sign the Republicans in government are finally overreaching. Censuring a U.S. Representative for criminal actions, or personal attacks on another member, is one thing. Censuring a U.S. Representative for saying unpleasant things about your party is another. Her statements were much less offensive than Dick Cheney telling Pat Leahey "Go fuck yourself". But I don't see the Senate passing a resolution censuring him. First Coast News | Top Stories : Members of the U.S. House of Representatives censured Brown after a shouting match on the House floor Thursday night. The argument started during a debate over HR-4818. The bill would provide international monitoring of the November presidential election. Congress has been considering an outside monitor due to all the confusion over the last election, and the 'hanging chads' in Florida. Repre...

Another election fear Note that I think the subject of this editorial is far-fetched. But I thought the whole electoral imbroglio in Florida in 2000 was far-fetched, and of course everyone who voted would get their vote counted. Silly me. The Supreme Court's decision in Bush v. Gore contains a disclaimer that it was only for that election, but I doubt that the 5 Republicans who voted for it would shy away from implementing it again if it means getting four more years of Dubya. Usurping the Voters (washingtonpost.com) : Suppose that some of the electors -- the people who under our constitutional system conduct the real presidential election some weeks after voters go to the polls -- aren't actually selected by the voters. Impossible? Not if you give a close reading to the Supreme Court's decision in the case of Bush v. Gore , which finally settled the presidential election of 2000, if not to everyone's satisfaction. Under that decision, there is no guaran...

An invaluable resource for the election season This website tracks the presidential election polls by state, and calculates how many electoral votes each candidate would receive based on the latest poll. Also, it presents a map showing the candidate preference and the strength of that preference. As of today, Kerry has 322 electoral votes, and Bush has 205. Tennessee is shown as exact tie. There are some downsides. The polls do not always count third-party candidates. Some small states haven't been polled in this election cycle. In that case, the electoral votes go to whoever won them last time. In general, though, this is good stuff. Go check it out. Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004

Does the Bush administration want workers to have any benefits? Today's Paul Krugman column in the N.Y. Times points out the differences in the two health plans offered by the presidential candidates. Kerry's plan would help 26.7 million of the 44 million uninsured. Bush's plan offers tax credits. "The credit would be $3,000 for a family of four with an income of $25,000; for an income of $40,000, it would fall to $1,714. Last year the average premium for families of four covered by employers was more than $9,000." This would only help 1.8 million families. What really caught my eye was the part futher down: In the case of health savings accounts, the key side consequence is a reduced incentive for companies to insure their workers. When companies provide group health insurance, healthier employees implicitly subsidize their sicker colleagues. They're willing to do this largely because the employer's contributions to health insurance are a tax...

Blowing Bubbles The best assessment of the housing price bubble in a long time comes from Morgan Stanley. This addresses both the housing bubble in the United States and in the rest of the world. Steven Roach addresses the why's of the housing bubble: Morgan Stanley: Global: Global Property Bubble? If price inflation in the real economy is unusually constrained by structural factors — precisely the case today — then the impacts of the liquidity cycle may simply spill over into asset markets. The equity bubble of the late 1990s was but the first example of this phenomenon. After it popped, excess liquidity then flowed into bond and property markets. As seen in this context, asset bubbles are a perfectly logical consequence of a more generalized monetarist model — one that sees the money supply driving some combination of prices in the real economy and prices in asset markets. When pressures bear down on one segment of this broader price structure — precisely the case in this ...

I'm Back Just haven't had much to say lately, I guess. I've been busy with work and just in a funk. I'm resolving to post once a day until the election, when God willing we will elect John Kerry. Hopefully my little voice will contribute to a Democratic victory in November.

On Security, Tourism, and Economics Steven Perlstein's column in the business section of the Post on Friday hits a lot of points that need to be discussed. The experience of tourists is lessened because of the security, which will mean fewer tourists and fewer dollars coming into the city. Local businesses and the government itself is losing worker productivity because of the security measures. Plus, it's just not as much fun to live here anymore. Use Caution in the Pursuit of Security (washingtonpost.com) : Today's state funeral for Ronald Reagan surely demands the extraordinary measures that have been taken to protect against a terrorist attack. But the last week has also offered reminders to visitors and residents of how much the everyday security measures have altered the life of the city. Access to public places has been significantly curtailed. The public landscape and streetscape have been scarred, in some cases permanently. And the economic costs are...

Are we safer yet? There was an article on Salon by their "Ask the Pilot" columnist, Patrick Smith, talking about our current focus on security. He specifically talks about airport security, but his comments applies to all of our current security madness. Salon.com Technology | Terrorism, tweezers and terminal madness After standing in queue for fifteen minutes I approach the metal detectors, where a screener greets me good morning. She is wearing paramilitary-style uniform complete with shoulder braids, combat boots and a beret. Across her back it says SECURITY in heavy gold lettering. This is supposed to look and feel like the ordered confidence you'd encounter in Europe or Asia. But the too-sharp creases in the pantlegs, the snapping gum and the glossy lipstick, all expose the phoniness and desperation of the scene. These aren't even the trappings of a third world state -- something you'd see at the airport in Quito or Entebbe. They're a carnival...

Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan died yesterday. What died was a husk of a person, who had very little to do with the "Great Communicator" we remember from the 1980's. Billmon has a good retrospective of the Reagan years on his website, to which I'll add only one thing. Reagan may have allowed the Volker Fed to do what it had to do to stop inflation, by strangling the economy with high interest rates for a year or so. But then he fired Volker (OK, refused to appoint him to another term) and put in Alan Greenspan, who's qualification depended upon him being one of Ayn Rand's disciples as much as his intellect. And he's been with us ever since. Rant over. Whiskey Bar: Ronald Reagan

Success I've figured out a way to use an open source program, Streamripper , to download NPR's Morning Edition as an MP3 file. I use the Windows Scheduler to kick off a batch file at 4:57 AM, which records until 7:03 AM, getting the first two hours from an MP3 stream. Then I can download the file into my MP3 player and listen to it on the Metro, at my desk, or in the gym. I know I'll be setting up batch files to record other programs too; I just set one up to grab "As It Happens", a Canadian Broadcasting Corporation radio news program. And once again, I'll have more information than I'll know how to deal with. It's an embarrassment of riches, and a wonderful problem to have.

Cheney and Halliburton, Again There ought to be a law against someone working for another company, say, Halliburton, while also receiving a paycheck as Vice President of the United States. Remember Cheney is still receiving payments from them for "deferred" compensation. E-Mail Links Cheney's Office, Contract (washingtonpost.com) : Shortly before the Pentagon awarded a division of oil services contactor Halliburton Co. a sole-source contract to help restore Iraqi oil fields last year, an Army Corps of Engineers official wrote an e-mail saying the award had been 'coordinated' with the office of Vice President Cheney, Halliburton's former chief executive. The March 5, 2003, e-mail, disclosed over the weekend by Time magazine, noted that Douglas Feith, a senior Pentagon official, had signed off on the deal 'contingent on informing WH [the White House] tomorrow.' 'We anticipate no issues since action has been coordinated w VP's office...

Stagflation Last week the Angry Bear mentioned an article on Salon that he thought merited sitting through their ad to get a day pass for. Well, I did and got to wandering around through it and decided to go ahead and pay for a subscription so I wouldn't have to go through the ads to get to James Galbraith's columns. This one from May 20, 2004 is wonderful, and matches my own views about Alan Greenspan: The man who stayed too long. Greenspan has made quite a few mistakes in his career as Fed Chairman, and he's fixing to make another one, one that may bring back the stagflation of the 1970's. Salon: The man who stayed too long Greenspan is already telling us, as clearly as he ever does, that the Fed will shortly repeat the mistakes of the last oil price shock, back in the 1970s. Faced with inflation -- even just a small amount -- it will raise interest rates. This is called "fighting inflation." The headline writers will say so endlessly, until you...

I'm back Sorry I've been away so long. I spent most of my vacation away from the internet, away from the Washington Post, and away from the TV news. I get back to the real world, after hearing bits and pieces of the Abu Ghraib abuse, and it just sickened me. So, I've spent the last two weeks with my head in the sand, not reading the Post, not watching much news unless it's from a European source, and just hoping that it'll all go away. It hasn't. So, I'm back, and ready again to start yelling about this goddamn train wreck of a war that the Bush Administration got us into. His speech tonight reassures the faithful, but no-one else. Too many lies have been told to the American people for this to keep working. Hell, they even lied about the weather in Crawford, TX, to make us think that his bike accident was the result of rainstorms. Meanwhile, Mrs. Datanerd just got back from visiting the in-laws. They wish that congress would spend as much...

On Vacation Leaving tomorrow, but we'll be packing tonight. See you all in a week and a half.

Tort Reform You know how Texas passed tort reform of the type that Dubya want's the whole country to have? Want to see how it worked out? Check out this ( Off the Kuff: There's your tort "reform" ) and this ( HoustonChronicle.com - Insurers taken to task over malpractice rates ). On second thought, I'll just summarize it for you. Instead of the insurance companies cutting their insurance rates, they've kept them the same or increased them. And, since the tort reform isn't reducing rates, those commies in the state lege are threatening to legilatively roll back premiums. Seems they're having a Claude Rains moment right now, but I think they may be genuinely shocked that manipulating the market for one interest has unintended consequenses on others. And isn't it wonderful that Dubya wants to bring this to the entire country? AUSTIN -- House lawmakers sent a stern message to insurance companies Thursday: Medical malpractice lawsuit r...

Busy week ahead Cleaning house, doing chores, and working working working so I can take off for vacation the first week of May. Blogging will be sparse, but I'll try to keep up to date. This is just a week on the beach in Florida, so I don't know if I'll do the full-blown travel diary like I did for Ireland.

Bandar deines oil price-election link Let's all remember that this is Prince Bandar speaking. The one who Barbara Bush, Dubya's momma, referred to as Bandar Bush. Presumably he's the favorite son candidate. So, of course he wouldn't interfere with his friend's internal affairs. His friend's the Bush family anyway. This is a good time for me to recommend that everyone reading gets a copy of Craig Unger's book "House of Bush, House of Saud" and Robert Baer's book "Sleeping with the Devil: How Washington Sold Our Soul for Saudi Crude". Yahoo! News - Saudi Ambassador Denies Oil-Election Link : WASHINGTON - The Saudi ambassador to the United States on Wednesday denied any linkage between the U.S. presidential election campaign and a Saudi pledge to the Bush administration to push for lower oil prices. There was no 'quid pro quo,' Prince Bandar bin Sultan told reporters after a meeting with national security advi...

Three excellent commentaries Two good columns, and one good editorial in the Washington Post today. Who would have thought they could still get writers who would take a whack at the Bush administration, even when it's desperately needed whacking. First, Richard Cohen. Bicycling to War (washingtonpost.com) : Old joke: A man repeatedly rides a bike across the Mexican-U.S. border. Each time, he's stopped by Customs and the bike is taken apart. Nothing is found. Finally, one day a Customs official offers the man immunity from prosecution if only he will tell what he's smuggling. The man pauses for a second, shrugs and says, 'Bicycles.' I offer you this because I have just finished Bob Woodward's compelling new book, 'Plan of Attack,' and while it contains several gasps per chapter -- more reasons why George Tenet should be fired, more proof that Condi Rice is in over her head and more reasons that Dick Cheney should be medicated -- the stunning dis...

This doesn't comfort me I suppose I shouldn't be surprised that John Ashcroft wasn't interested in terrorism, when there's so many other things to deal with. Like boobies. Boobies everywhere, including in the grand hall of the Justice Department, which he must cover with a blue curtain so nobody can see boobies and become corrupted. But surely boobies didn't take up all of his time. Ashcroft's Efforts on Terrorism Criticized (washingtonpost.com) :The former acting director of the FBI testified yesterday that Attorney General John D. Ashcroft rejected any further briefings on terrorist threats in the weeks before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and did not view combating al Qaeda as 'a top item on his agenda.' Thomas J. Pickard, who ran the FBI for several months before the attacks, also told the commission investigating the terrorist strikes that Ashcroft rejected a plea that summer for an extra $58 million to combat al Qaeda. Pickard testified th...

The Press Conference Good god, what was that? I watched the first 15 minutes of that last night, and then decided the horrible Will Farrell movie that Mrs. Datanerd picked up wasn't so bad after all. Tom Shales has a wonderful writeup in today's post about it. It's a shame that a TV critic has to be the one to tell us the truth about the travesty that was last night's "Press" Conference, but apparently most of the front-page reporters have to be too polite. A columnist doesn't suffer that problem. A Prime Time to Ask The President Questions (washingtonpost.com) : 'When I say something, I mean it,' George W. Bush said decisively near the end of last night's prime-time presidential news conference. Nobody called out, 'When will you say something?' -- the White House press corps is too mannerly for that -- but some reporters, and some viewers, must have been thinking it. One network reporter predicted accurately beforehand tha...

Our Birthday Not mine, but the blog, Let's Run the Numbers, is one year old. I managed to miss it in all of the chaos lately, and I've never been a self-promoting sort. Let me state for the record that no blog that links to me has done so because I asked them to. They've usually done it because I've posted something witty in their comments, or done a search to see who's linking to them, and added one as a reciprocal courtesy. I appreciate it. I've never been one for self-promotion, mainly because I'm not good at it. Anyway, our birthday was April 10, 2003. I can't get the blogger links to go back to those, but here's a link that's close. Uncertainty and Economic Growth .

Sometime's I think we've just forgotten I was having dinner with a friend down the hill this evening, and he was talking about how he found a tax deduction to be totally absurd, but he took advantage of it anyway. The deduct he was talking about was the mortgage interest deduction. This got me aggrevated for a number of reasons. First, he was talking about tax code simplification. That's all well and good, but in the past twenty years, we haven't seen any "simplification" that wasn't in reality a way for the higher-income people to avoid paying more taxes than the lower-income people. My parents didn't get much back from Reagan's tax cuts, and I didn't get much lower taxes from Bush's tax cuts. Secondly, and more specifically, the mortgage interest tax deduction was part of a set of policies that made home ownership possible for the middle class. In a way, it was a form of wealth redistribution, with middle-class people bei...

Thus endeth our favorite Tiki Bar Just down the hill from me is a little tiki bar. They made good American-Chinese food too. I had my last meal, and my last Suffering Bastard (a lethal concoction of rum, rum, and more rum) there tonight. They're shutting down because of improvements in the Beltway and the Woodrow Wilson Bridge. Sometimes the price of progress is too high. Dynamite Mai Tais, Welcoming Owners (washingtonpost.com)

Bush and the environment One of the things Molly Ivins was telling us about before we got Dubya as "The only president we got" was his abysmal record on the environment as governor of Texas. You know, his silly programs that got companies to "voluntarily" comply with environmental restrictions. Well, he got it. Companies that were shutting down anyway "voluntarily" complied. Companies that were still going concerns didn't "volunteer". He's at it again, this time at the national level. With the repeal of the new source review, energy companies are taking advantage of the American people. It's the old "tragedy of the commons" problem. They don't have to bear the cost of their pollution, the citizens downwind of them do. And so the energy companies don't cut their emissions. And they basically stonewalled the Clinton administration, and donated millions to the Bush campaign. Trouble is, a majority of ...

Bush no care about me? That's unpossible! Excellent coverage of a poll in tomorrow's Washington Post. This actually cheers me up, because it makes me think that the American public is finally getting what I've been ranting about. We may actually have hope to beat him with his own stick. Fewer Say Bush Cares About Them (washingtonpost.com) Polls Show President's 'Compassion' Rating Falling Steadily By Dana Milbank and Richard Morin Washington Post Staff Writers Sunday, April 4, 2004; Page A01 As he approaches the November election, President Bush has shed a good part of the "compassionate conservative" image he cultivated during the 2000 election, a Washington Post poll has found. Bush came to office three years ago with a message that he was different from traditional Republican conservatives because he was promoting programs for the poor and disadvantaged. But with his presidency dominated by foreign policy issues and such traditio...